Environment Centre
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Modelling of Sustainable Forestry Scenarios Contributing To Climate Change Adaptation – Examining the Impacts on Energy Sector and GHG Emissions in the Czech Republic and Public Acceptability of These Scenarios by Czech population – LESY (TA CR, 2019–2023)

Financial support

Technological Agency of the Czech Republic (TA ČR), Program ETA

Project duration

02/2019–01/2023

Coordinator of the project in CUEC

Dr. Milan Ščasný, Dr. Iva Zvěřinová

Project partners

IFER - Institute for Forest Ecosystem Research, s.r.o. (Prof. Cienciala)

Project description

The aim of the project is to identify forest development scenarios, options to implement adaptation strategies in forestry and to analyze impacts on energy, emission balance and the acceptability of given scenarios by the Czech public. The project translates adaptation measures into scenarios of development of crop and production characteristics, adds economic dimension (costs and benefits), social aspects (population preference), links scenario analysis in forestry and energy (the potential of usable biomass), and provides a follow-up balance of greenhouse gas emissions from forestry (mitigation effect), and a revision of the emissions of other pollutants. The project output is a complex assessment of scenarios in forest development in the country, including effects on other sectors and society.

Objectives

The aim of the project is to develop different scenarios of tree species and age composition of forests in the Czech Republic that will take into account the effect of climate change and forest stability. Scenario modeling will evaluate current adaptation measures, effects of the composition of forests on the greenhouse gas balance, and the balance of other carbon stock components. Regarding the costs and benefits of forest production function, modeling will assess the quantitative balance of the wood mass, the effect of the forest composition changes on the value and range of production and the way it is used, including the derivation of the logging costs, timber harvesting and transportation. These models should help to develop policy strategies in relation to the expected development in forestry. The acceptability of policies will be examined based on a questionnaire survey, including the analysis of attitudes and preferences of the Czech population for the environmental characteristics and functions of the forest. The next phase of modeling will predict the development of the Czech Republic's energy system by 2050 with the aim of identifying an optimal mix of fuels and technologies for electricity and heat production, assuming different scenarios of biomass potential development.

Research team

  • Prof. Mikołaj Czajkowski
  • Dr. Vojtěch Máca
  • Dr. Lukáš Rečka
  • Dr. Milan Ščasný
  • Dr. Iva Zvěřinová
  • MSc. Martin Kryl
.