Integrated models for analysis of regulatory impacts and simulations of long-term scenarios of energy sector development – RegSim
Technological Agency of the Czech Republic (TA CR), THETA Programme
Coordinator of the project in CUEC
Dr. Milan Ščasný
Cambridge Econometrics, Ltd., United Kingdom
The project develops integrated models for the analysis of the impacts of regulation and simulation of long-term scenarios of energy development. In the Czech Republic, complex modeling and predictive economic and energy models are not developed or used in the fields of energy consumption, transport and environment, although regulatory impact assessments are an integral part of the legislative process and the need for quantification of the economic and distributional impacts of development and simulation technology utilization in the longer term faces a number of upcoming policies and measures. Developed modeling tools - sub-equilibrium energy market models, macro-structural models and hybrid models of the economy (TIMES, CGE-ENER, macro-econometric E3ME, transport-energy TIMES-TRAN) will allow analysis of energy development in assessing the possible application of existing and, in particular, new technologies and procedures to achieve long-term European objectives (ASEK, NPCM, Roadmap2050). The project defines scenarios including both negative and positive pricing instruments (taxes, emission allowances, subsidies), emissions or resources regulating instruments (territorial mining limits) or the use of specific technologies (renewable energy sources, nuclear energy) and evaluating their impacts on the Czech economy, and on human health. The project will provide the public administration with a scientifically-based quantification of the impacts of regulations and background material for the generation of medium and long-term scenarios and trends in the energy sector, strategic planning and policy formulation with the 2050 horizon. These analyzes will be crucial for creating a "evidence-based" political decision-making and taking into account the Czech specifics in energy, transport and environmental protection at EU level. Model simulations and analyzes will help identify the directions of modernization taking into account economic and environmental considerations. The project also allows to develop contemporary theoretical models and approaches in modeling tools, which will be practically usable (eg RIA analysis), realistic and scientifically based.
We will develop a new generation of the TIMES partial balance model with a detailed structure of the heating sector and a regionalized demand for heat to analyze the operation of the heating sector within the development of the energy system. On the basis of the model, the development of the technological mix, fuel consumption and emissions production in the Czech energy sector will be analyzed by 2050. This model will be integrated with the simulation model of traffic development in the TIMES-TRAN optimization model, which will predict the development of fleet composition, fuel consumption and emissions from road transport in the Czech Republic by 2030 with a view to 2050. Impact on the economy and the main macroeconomic indicators will be evaluated by the Generalized Balance Model (CGE). Based on the developed CGE model of the general equilibrium and the EEME economic-energy-environment model, the macroeconomic impact of environmental regulatory measures and changes in key economic assumptions until 2050 will be analyzed. The TIMES-TRAN energy-transport model and the E3ME hybrid model will be suitable for analyzing the application of new passenger transport technologies. Simulation of fleet development and assessment of economic impacts and effects on the Czech Republic's energy system will help to assess alternatives to increasing the share of electricity use for EV and PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) drives. We integrate these models with emission modules to quantify impacts on emissions and consequently on human health and the environment. The subject of the analysis is the measures resulting from updates of the SEK, NPPs, climate-energy package and decarbonisation of economies, emission ceiling requirements, EU ETS reforms, or the use of specific technologies (renewable energy, BAT, new nuclear plant). Special attention is paid to consumer behavioral responses and cost-saving measures. Together with other stakeholders, we define the scenarios and policies whose impacts will be the subject of the assessment, creating the basis for effective discussion and dissemination of results between expert and informed public (articles, presentations, academic activities).
- MSc. Vědunka Kopečná
- Dr. Vojtěch Máca
- Dr. Lukáš Rečka
- Dr. Milan Ščasný
- Dr. Iva Zvěřinová